Although there is currently no concern in this regard, it is a theme to follow closely. Apart from the increased appetite for the demand for dollars, for the time being until the legislative elections, everything suggests that the price of the U.S. currency will remain stable. One can imagine that a tolerance range that one can impose the BCRA would be $3.65 to $3.75. The exchange agreement with China and what has been achieved at the meeting of the G20, have given him a greater power of fire to the BCRA to control to the U.S.
currency. Probably the excess dollars do these days that the BCRA salesperson that will best serve you take a stance to control (and stop in if needed), the fall of the dollar taking advantage of also this situation to retrieve reservations. This excess of dollars in the foreign exchange market will not remain for a long time doing that the BCRA need reset to contain the rise of the dollar. Although the goal, by the least until the elections, is keeping the exchange rate with a certain stability, then the Monetary Authority, will be allowed let slide the price toward $4, albeit in a smooth, controlled manner. For many economists, the current exchange rate does not seem simple to be sustained for a long time. Eduardo Fracchia, director of the academic area of economy from the IAE Business School, said in an interview granted to the site iProfesional: I think that level to $3.7 it will not be able to maintain more, while the Central Bank has many reservations and could do it. Get me the impression that you are going to a slightly more pronounced devaluation that has nothing to do with Exchange rate adjustments in other circumstances. The prominent Economist Miguel Angel Broda (one of the few economists who does not fear to deviate from the average in their economic forecasts), as risky as always in their forecasts anticipate: devaluatory adjustment is likely after the elections.
As I commented in paragraphs earlier, I have no doubt that the devaluation process will occur after the elections, although this will involve a risk of speculative behaviors are generated from demand to press towards the acceleration of the process of exchange rate devaluation. No doubt this will represent a situation of risk against which you must fight the BCRA. The Argentine Government wants to voluntarily bring the dollar to $4. Will not be a simple task achieve this in the best way to is to avoid generating unwanted side effects (increased inflationary pressure, uncertainty of context, speculation, drip of deposits in the banking sector, among other unwanted effects). He committed to the dollar in Argentina loses? Not, of course, that does not. If it is not produced by excess demand, it will be need for the Government to adjust it, but the dollar in Argentina will continue to strengthen.